Could Trump form a third party

Split Republican Party : Nothing better than Trump cannot happen to Biden

There is the word "poodle". British Prime Minister Tony Blair was given this basically neutral nickname almost two decades ago because of his loyalty to American President George W. Bush. Blair went through thick and thin with Bush, through the war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since then, "poodle" has been a synonym for unconditional devotion in political language.

Donald Trump, to stay in the picture, also keeps poodles. One of them is Richard Grenell, former US ambassador in Berlin, now looking for a new job. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) annual conference in Orlando, Florida, he gave a hint on Saturday as to which office he might be eligible for - Governor of California.

Grenell didn't leave the incumbent governor, Gavin Newsom, good hair. California was once Reagan country, he said, a "shining example of innovation and middle class success." Today it stands for forest fires, power outages and school closings. Then he concluded with a sentence that underpinned his own ambitions. If you did Grenell said there was always another option: "You can compete against them yourself."

Trump's first long speech since the change in power

That's true. However, California is a deeply blue, democratic state. In the last presidential election, Joe Biden was 29 percentage points ahead of Trump. But the ability to make simple political calculations and to calculate realistic options for power seems to have been lost not only by Grenell, but by many Republicans. This also proved the enthusiastic rapture of Trump's supporters at the CPAC annual conference. On Sunday he gave his first long speech there since the change of power in Washington D.C.

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It should dawn on many a conservative: Nothing better than Trump can happen to Biden. The ex drives the split ax deeper and deeper into his party, pulling on everyone who does not want to follow his "movement" uncritically. It stirs fear among those who recall that four years ago all three centers of power - the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate - were in the hands of the Republicans. And now in the hands of the Democrats.

Trump lost the election and is making use of the latent aggressiveness of part of his supporters so that his party does not address the reasons for it. He keeps the “Grand Old Party” in a state of shock and marks deviants as traitors. But even a united Republican Party was not able to maintain its power, Biden got seven million more votes than Trump. How is a divided Republican Party supposed to regain power?

Will he run again in 2024? He leaves that open

That is the central question to which no American Conservative has an answer. The proportion of old, white men is declining, with Trump they are fighting a kind of last stand. The growing diversity favors the Democrats. Yes, the ex forms a strong center of power within the Republicans. Nothing works against him. Will he run again in 2024? He leaves that open.

In doing so, however, Trump takes away all other aspirants' perspective. Their fists clench in their pockets with anger as they cheer the demagogue outside. Ambitious senators like Tom Cotton (Arkansas), Marco Rubio (Florida), Tim Scott (South Carolina) and Josh Hawley (Missouri) or Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis are, so to speak, poodles for a while. They lie in wait for the opportunity, waiting for the moment when the overfather lets them off the leash. They want to become post-Trump as quickly as possible without having to be anti-Trump.

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Various polls have been cited in the past few days that show how strong Trump's influence is within the Republican Party. According to a survey by USA Today and Suffolk University, three-quarters of his voters would vote him again. According to "Politico" and Morning Consult, 59 percent of Republicans support a leading role for Trump within their party.

The corona vaccination campaign is making great strides

But such surveys can also be read differently. It is true that only 29 percent of Republicans reject Trump's re-candidacy. And it was only a handful of Republicans who supported the impeachment process against him in Congress. But this anti-Trump minority isn't going to disappear anytime soon or turn ruefully into poodles. A Trump dominating the party weakens the party because of his dominance.

And Biden? He continues stoically, at best reacting en passant to the roar of Trump. The corona vaccination campaign is making great strides, with more than four fifths of Americans supporting the $ 1.9 trillion aid and investment program. Trump is raging - and Biden rules as if he had taken Karl Valentin's advice to heart: "Just don't ignore it."

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